Apr
09
2009
|
The Pirates Game |
|
|
|
Written by JD Johannes
|
|
Friday, 10 April 2009 |
Something strange is happening in the situation of the captain being held hostage by Somali pirates.
U.S. Citizens are taken hostage by brigands rather often and rarely, very rarely is the FBI employed in these situations. As person who travels through a lot of foreign countries I know the U.S. position rather well--if you are taken hostage or kidnapped and held for ransom, you are pretty much on your own.
So, this situation has interesting components.
Lets start with what we know about the pirates:
Started operating more frequently in 1990s
They are in it mostly for the money
Usually do not harm crew
Hold cargo for ransom
Made about $150m last year
Some Pirates linked to terror groups
This particular group is thought to be linked to AQI
The other party to this situation is President Obama.
In rational choice theory, the game, when played properly, zeroes in on motive.
President Obama, like all politicians has the foremost objective of 'looking good'. His motivation is to avoid a situation that he looks bad, incompetent, weak etc. His goal is avoid an outcome where the fact pattern makes him look bad.
So, now we look at the various options, ranked in preference among the players in a very crude rational choice game.
Obama
O1 Pirates surrender
O2 Pirates release Captain, then taken by force
O3 Pirates release Captain, then escape
O4 Pirates taken by force, Captain saved
O5 Pirates taken by force, Captain killed
O6 Pirates taken by force, Captain killed, US personnel killed
O7 Pirates escape with Captain
O8 Pay off Pirates, Pirates double cross, kill captain, becomes publicly known
Pirates, non-terrorist
P1 Collect ransom, release captain, continue business
P2 Release Captain, continue business
P3 Surrender, handed over to regional authorities, continue business
P4 Surrender, wind up in prison
P5 Taken by force, Captain lives, wind up in prison
P6 Taken by force, Pirates killed
Pirates, terrorist
T1 Pay off Pirates, Pirates double cross, kill Captain, youtube video
T2 Escape with Captain
T3 Pirates taken by force, Captain killed, US personnel killed
T4 Pirates taken by force, Captain killed
T5 Pirates taken by force, Captain saved
T6 Pirates release Captain, then taken by force
T7 Pirates release Captain, allowed to escape
T8 Pirates surrender
If we are dealing with run-of-the-mill pirates, then the outcome will be P3, the pirates surrender then are handed over to regional authorities who slap their wrists and let them continue business.
In this scenario everybody pretty much gets what they want.
But, if we are dealing with terrorist pirates, look at how the options line up on the continuum. The best case for Obama is the worst for the terrorist pirates and vice versa.
Anything from O5 through O8 is politically unaccepable to Obama and O4 has a probablity of turning into O5. But O4 has a high payoff.
Anything beyond T4 is politically unacceptable to the terrorists. This assumes that the pirate terrorists are full on nut jobs ready for martyrdom. If they are not committed to the Jihad, then it will be a P3 with a P5 veneer, or O5. They will let themselves be taken.
If these are terrorist pirates, then this is a test. To see what Obama does. At which point the result is transmitted to the world and Obama's measure is taken. Terrorists play more for Gross Rating Points and headlines than they do for tactical advantage.
An ocean standoff dragging on would be good for GRPs, especially if the terrorist pirates let it be known they are terrorists. This is bad for Obama politically, but allowing them to stall is tactically smart. The terrorists will tire out, run out of potable water and food.
The tactical downside risk is that they just go ahead and kill the Captain then martyr themselves in whatever fashion is most dramatic--which gets them what they wanted anyway, headlines.
So, the settlement is O4/T3. Obama rolls the dice, lets the SEALS do their thing and if all goes well, the result will be O4. O4 also has the most positive GRPs for the United States--not just Obama.
But this drama on the high seas is only Act I. What really counts is the follow-on actions that will resolve the piracy problem or allow business as usual.
This game I have mapped out is 'on-the-fly' I have not calculated weights on what is known, the known uknowns and the most important factor the uknown unknowns. The unknown unknowns--the things you don't know and don't even realize you don't know--are what usually what destroy a plan or a model. I have not even really thought out the motives, which is the key, and the scenarios the motives would operate on.
|
|
