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In the new USAToday/Gallup poll, the most interesting number is that 20% of the public thinks the U.S. can win the war in Iraq but will not.
The obvious follow-up question of "why" is not included, but the "why" the 20% think this way is the key to political battles in the U.S.
The poll shows the quagmire the Defeat Caucus is in.
Sixty-one percent oppose funding cuts, only 44% support revoking the resolution authorizing use of force, but 54% favor a cap on the number of troops, 60% favor a time-table for withdrawal and 77% agree we should leave if the Iraqis don't keep their promises.
Quite the mixed bag of results in the various Defeat Caucus plans.
The slow bleed was well tested and very calculated, but it has a huge flaw--it is easily exposed.
But the key question for the politicians is in Question #5 "Which comes closer to your view the war in Iraq?
Definately Win 11%
Probably Win 17%
Can win, but don't think will win 20%
Don't think it can win 46%
No Opinion 6%
'Definately win' has been eroding, 'probably win' is dropping some, but has no consistent pattern, 'Do not think can win' has been gaining.
The number that has stayed remarkably consistent is 'can win, but won't.'
The strategies of the Victory and Defeat caucuses, especially the Victory Caucus, will be built around those 20% who think we can win, but won't.
The first two rounds of polling would have to be essay, to see what the main themes are. After that, a series of push and pull questions to refine those themes into messages.
My gut tells me that the 20% think we won't win because of the meddling from Congress, the media (which causes the meddling from Congress), that the troops are not allowed to fight the war (media and Congress) and incompetence in the higher civillian and military commands.
The public polls, by Gallup, news organizations and Pew usually ask perception based questions and their true opinion questions never really get to the root question.
The root question being simply--do you want the U.S. to win?
The Defeat Caucus knows this number. They know that the public would prefer a win to a loss. And they know that they are seen as the agents of defeat, there will be a price to pay.
Hence the slow bleed strategy and the resulting legislative quagmire. A vocal base that demands immediate defeat. A soft plurality that does not want to lose but has accepted that the war cannot be won and a fickle middle that thinks the war can be won, but won't and that will gladly blame the defeat on them.
Yes, quite the quagmire.
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