Lieutenant Colonel Kenneth Mintz made a series crucial decisions in late April and early May that flipped the Taliban's tactics upside down and is establishing the infrastructure needed to deliver what could be a devastating series of knock-down punches in what used to be Mullah Omar's backyard.

For the last four months I have been traveling Afghanistan looking for a place where the surge here may equal the effects of the 2007 Iraq Surge.  If there is anywhere in Afghanistan where a movement similar to the Anbar Awakening that sprang up in Iraq's Al Anbar province along the the Euphrates river in 2007 can be built, it is the Argendahb river valley west of Khandahar.

The physical terrain is remarkably similar to that of the Euphrates river valley.  There is a key highway, irrigated farmland, clusters of villages and a river.  Granted the Argendahb is a mere stream compared to the Euphrates which is key difference because it does not create a physical barrier, but it is a terrain feature that can be used tactically.  Most interesting is how much the insurgent's view of the Argendahb matches Al Qaida's view of Al Anbar.  For the Capital T hard core Taliban the river valley west of Khandahar is an almost spiritual homeland.  For Al Qaida in Iraq, the pure Sunni Islam of Al Anbar was their base of support.

This open source map comes from the University of Texas.  TF Spartan, 3rd Brigade, 10th Mountain operates west of Khandahar mostly in the area between Highway 1 on the north and the river to the south.

The way LTC Mintz, commander of 1-32 Infantry, has arrayed his forces is also remarkably similar to the way Marines and Soldiers were stacked up on the Euphrates river valley in 2007 as the Anbar Awakening spread down stream from Ramadi to Baghdad .

Instead of living on Company sized combat outposts of about 125 men and patrolling through the farm land that is strewn with mines to the villages then returning to the outpost, Mintz's men live in platoon and squad sized patrol bases and strong points in the villages with their Afghan Army brothers.  An average patrol base has about 25 men in it.  The water is warm, the food is MREs and the living is dirty--a lot of Soldiers love it.

Throughout Afghanistan Army units go on patrol through the fields only to be shot at from behind the walls of the villages.  The game plan of the Taliban is to shoot at Soldiers from two sides in hopes of baiting the Soldiers into crossing a mine field.  By buying or renting a house in the village, building a few shooting postions on the roof and staying in the village 24/7 the tables are turned.  The Taliban now has to cross their own mine fields and try to attack the US Soldiers who are in covered positions behind the walls.  The US Soldiers patrol in the villages, the fields and roads between the villages and in a bubble of the fields around the villages.

Mintz, who is to combat tactics what Chuck Knoll, the legendary coach of the Pittsburgh Steelers, is to football fundamentals, has executed a plan that is truly full spectrum Counter Insurgency.

Counter Insurgency is a competition for the people, not farm fields.  The goal is to separate the Taliban from the people.  By living in the villages, the soldiers have not just weekly or daily contact with the population, but hourly contact.  The Taliban, to have influence over the people, have to fight their way through a platoon of US Soldiers and Afghan soldiers.  If the Talibs don't die in the process, they usually give up under the precision fire of US soldiers.

Mintz' soldiers are killing Taliban, having constant contact with the people, and protecting the people from the Taliban who shoot into the village.  A complete 180 from the usual scenario in Afghanistan, but the exact scenario that I saw first hand in Iraq's Euphrates river valley as local villagers stood up and joined with the Marines in taking on Al Qaida.

Completing the local villager's piece of the puzzle is the Weapons Shura--occasionally referred to as 'Nalgham Force'--a small band of eccentric leaders with mixed motives who at personal risk have joined with Mintz' soldiers to provide security for the villages.

Members of the Weapons Shura and Afghan Police meet with LTC Mintz (blocked by his interpreter) and CPT Dennis Call, commander of Charlie Company.  They hold their meetings under a canopy of grape vines.

The Argendahb is grape country.

To be sure, a couple small outposts in the villages and few dudes with AKs do not an awakening make, but I saw beginnings of the Anbar Awakening and the situation is similar.  The physical infrastructure of small patrol bases and strong points in the villages is the first step.  The next is to drill down deep into the political structure of the village, find the key leaders, gain their confidence and convince them to join with the US and thier Afghan Army brothers to fight the Taliban.  CPT Call plans on developing an ID Card program for the villagers, which is text book counter insurgency and creates a semi-gated community.  No ID card, no access to the area and no more hiding in plain sight.  The step beyond that is to find the power-players with the Zoor who are on the Taliban's side but can be tilted to the side of the Afghan/US coalition.

There is a lot more for me to drill down into, so more will be coming in a couple days.  This thing could fall flat on its face, but LTC Mintz and his boss, COL Patrick Frank the commander of Task Force Spartan, are veterans of the 2007 Iraq surge and know what success looks like in counter insurgency.  Their success this time may be an Arghendahb Awakening right in the area where Mullah Omar used to have his Mosque.

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Standing in front of the building the Taliban used to use as thier tactical operations center in Nalgham.  From left to right:  Maj Shaki Jan, CPT Dennis Call, JD Johannes, LTC Kenneth Mintz.

A fighting position in one of the Afghan Army's strong points.

War Buddies.  MAJ Brian Ducote and JD Johannes.  I met Ducote when he was a Captain commanding Battle Company in Baghdad in 2007 during the Iraq surge.  I embedded with Battle Company for a few weeks and made a documentary about them.  Ducote is now the Operations Officer of 1-32 Infantry.

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